Winx

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Weight

Don Scott was a well-known punter, mathematical genius, class, and weight standards guru and to many, he was the ‘Father of ratings.’ Don Scott through his books has taught punters how they can beat the bookmakers at their own game by analysing class, form, weight, framing value prices, and taking advantage of overlays. His book ‘Winning More’ discusses the Value Revolution, what punters should know about class and weight and how to produce accurate and complete true performance ratings. “Everything A Punter needs to know about Weight”. Within this chapter, Scott summarises his discussions with 15 different maxims, and this is what he mentions as the maxims.

Maxim One: “All factors that affect the rating of a horse are expressed in kilograms”
Maxim Two: “Extra weight is a disadvantage to a horse. 1.5kg of extra weight disadvantages a horse by one length”
Maxim Three: “Some outside barrier positions are a disadvantage to a horse. This disadvantage can be expressed in kilograms”
Maxim Four: “A less skillful jockey is a disadvantage to a horse. This disadvantage can be expressed in kilograms”
Maxim Five: “Some horses suffer running disadvantages during a race. Most running disadvantages can be expressed in kilograms”
Maxim Six: “The form of horses rarely remains steady. Horses are usually either improving or deteriorating. This improvement or deterioration can be expressed in kilograms”
Maxim Seven: “When horses compete on equal terms, their performance can be rated in kilograms, depending on their finishing position”

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Ratings

 Don Scott has created a simple rating for horses based on their performance. In this virtual race, three horses are carrying the same weight, the same skill of the jockey, and have no barrier or running disadvantages, therefore all horses are racing on equal terms with no advantages or disadvantages. horse 1 wins the race, horse 2 finishes one length back in second and horse 3 finishes three lengths back in third.

Because all these terms are equal, it is safe to say horse 1 is the best, horse 2 is one length worse than horse 1, and horse 3 is three lengths worse than horse 1. Scott goes on to convert them to kilograms. Horse 1’s rating of their performance is 0kg, horse 2 is -1.5kg, and horse 3 is -4.5kg.

He has just given us, the average punter a base to start our own ratings and adjust from there. Does weight matter at all?   My system solves this question.   A basic understanding of the laws of physics tells you that weight carried has to have some impact on the speed at which a horse can run. But quantifying the impact of weight is the million dollar challenge for punters. All statistics and results taken have been on Australian Race Courses.

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